Word: aagaard
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...computer, Aagaard first conjures up the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, which started, many scientists think, along a spur of the San Andreas some 60 miles south of San Francisco. Across a Landsat image of the Bay Area, Aagaard's simulation takes the form of a spreading blob of mixed colors that indicate shaking intensities, from low-intensity blue to medium-intensity yellow and high-intensity red. Then Aagaard calls up 1906. The difference is immediately apparent. This time red flows across the landscape like a river of lava, and among the places that glow the brightest is the area around...
...happen when the Hayward Fault--or the San Andreas--goes off? Scientists who study ancient quakes cannot answer that question because it depends on details that sediments do not preserve. But using a new 3-D model of the earth's crust in the Bay Area, USGS geophysicist Brad Aagaard and his colleagues can run simulations that tweak different parameters for earthquakes that have already occurred and for those still to come. The results range from the expected to the quite surprising...
...Aagaard and his colleagues have started using their earthquake simulator to try to answer the most tantalizing questions of all: What if the rupture of the fault had not started directly off the San Francisco coastline? What if it had started farther south, so that instead of breaking away from the city it had aimed right toward it? What if it had started farther north and broken south? In the first instance, the tentative answer is that San Francisco gets shaken even harder; in the second, it's Silicon Valley and the Livermore Valley that find themselves clamped...
LENORE RASTER AAGAARD...
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