Word: abe
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...Affair unfolding in Bangladesh or the Philippines? Think again. It's Japan, long held up as the paragon of a mature Asian democracy, yet which continues to serve up political leaders distinguishable only by subtleties of grey in their ideological coloration. Yasuo Fukuda, the leading candidate to replace Shinzo Abe as Japan's next PM, and Fukuda's rival, Taro Aso, appear to be trying to differentiate themselves as the Sept. 23 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) election approaches. Aso is pegged as a tough-talking hawk, Fukuda a diplomatic dove. But both are products of a political system dominated...
...Doing what Papa or Grandpa preached would be fine if it made sense to Japanese voters. But look at what happened to Abe, grandson of a nationalist ex-Premier. He blamed his resignation on the opposition for having stymied his efforts to continue Japanese refueling of American ships involved in the U.S.-led war on terror. Abe, like his grandfather, was intent on strengthening Japan's military ties with the U.S. But the Japanese public had already deserted Abe, not because of his foreign policy but over his inability to address fundamental economic issues. Harping on a faraway military operation...
...fact, the majority of Japanese oppose the country's naval mission. Yet Aso and Fukuda, like Abe, both support extending Japanese refueling, and they have other things in common. Their family political DNA runs deep. Aso's grandfather was Shigeru Yoshida, a China-bashing leader who called for Japan to rely on American military protection so it could focus on developing an export-led economy. Fast-forward half a century and Aso, a former Foreign Minister, staunchly supports the U.S.-Japan security alliance, while antagonizing China by defending visits of Japanese statesmen to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, where war criminals...
...because the rest of Japan has moved on from the reductionist U.S. good/China bad (or vice versa) matrix of the cold war era. The Japanese public, newly confident of their nation's place in the world but worried about economic concerns back home, deserves better than an old guard. Abe's predecessor Junichiro Koizumi, himself heir to a minor political dynasty, created the impression of trimming family political ties by installing private-sector civilians in key leadership posts. But Abe's most recent Cabinet re-embraced the political nobility - and neither Fukuda nor Aso can be counted...
...Prime Minister, Fukuda seems likely to continue the general course of the Abe administration, albeit with a more moderate touch. He also seems less willing to prioritize the U.S. alliance at the expense of Japan's Asian relations. Though not an opponent of economic reform, Fukuda is unlikely to risk taking any chances, which means needed changes like a consumption tax increase will stay on the shelf, even as Japan's recovery loses steam. For now, after the tumult of July's election and Abe's exit, Japan seems to be in a holding pattern, with tradition-bound hands...