Word: abm
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...Russians are smart. They doubt whether the missile shield will work anyway. And that will inform their relatively low-key approach. But in the last few days, they've started to say very clearly that discussion of missile defense can only take place in the framework of the ABM treaty (which Bush has said needs to be renegotiated or scrapped). That suggests he's going into Slovenia talks with Bush in a fairly rigid state of mind. That doesn't mean they'll come out in the same state of mind - the Russians and Soviets before them tended...
...They're unlikely to walk out or bang the table, but they'll stress the ABM treaty as a matter of principle. But Bush could offer them things that would build up Russia's and Putin's prestige. For the Russian leader, this meeting is important largely because it's taking place. His presidency is based strongly on public perceptions, and this allows him to show Russians that he's a player, and that Russia is a player...
...whole question of missile defense still rides very much on Saturday's meeting between President Bush and President Vladimir Putin in Slovenia. Remember, the ABM treaty is between the Russians and the U.S. The Europeans can only influence the discussion from the outside. Still, Putin's own spine will have been strengthened by the European position...
...question, becoming a question of degree and balance. The Europeans are increasingly prepared to acknowledge that there are new security questions to be addressed, but how those are addressed remains an open question. They're even more open to reexamining measures (such as the ABM treaty) that had been designed for a bipolar world. But the Europeans are insisting that the baby not be thrown out with the bathwater. They're saying we can't put all our eggs in the missile defense basket - there needs to be a new framework of multilateral strategic treaties to address the new proliferation...
...pretty easy for the Europeans to say they're open to discussion when there's no specific proposal coming from Washington. Bush isn't saying much more than "isn't missile defense a grand idea and isn't the ABM treaty outdated...