Word: abramowitz
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...McCain is still a compelling figure, and shake-ups happen. His real problem is the political environment. He's a Republican in what is emerging as a Democratic year. And he's aligned with Bush in a year of Bush fatigue over the Bush economy. Emory University's Alan Abramowitz has concocted a formula that has predicted the popular vote winner in 14 of the last 15 elections; it missed in 1968 but got the razor-thin margin right. His barometer uses three criteria: the approval rating of the incumbent President, the economic growth rate and the "time...
...study for the Brookings Institution, visiting fellow Ruy Teixeira and Emory University political-science professor Alan Abramowitz argue that the test for Democrats is not whether they can win working-class whites outright but whether they can hold their losses among these voters to 10 percentage points or less. In 2000 Al Gore lost them to George W. Bush by 17 percentage points; four years later, John Kerry lost them by 23 points. By contrast, Democratic candidates in the 2006 midterm elections ran 10 percentage points behind Republicans among working-class whites--and managed to win back the House...
...Michael J. Abramowitz ’85, a former president of The Crimson who covered many divestment-related stories, agreed that the early 1980s were a quieter period in South Africa divestment protests...
...last win for the 4th District in 2004, getting 64% of the general election vote then. But her overall erosion was showing, as McKinney squeaked by in that primary with 51% of the vote before winning big in the general election. "Davis is not considered a serious challenger," says Abramowitz. "She's a nice, sincere person. She is African-American but very conservative...
...Georgia in Congress. Her militant stances and attacks on President Bush, even to the point of accusing him of prior knowledge of the 9/11 plot, played well in the district for a while, but "she's been a very controversial figure in the district for a long time," says Abramowitz. "I think the run-in with the Capitol policeman added fuel to the fire based on her reaction as being a victim of racism...