Word: achuthan
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...Interest rates always rise when things are improving," says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "If higher interest rates choked off recoveries, then we would always be in recession...
...economist Nouriel Roubini said during a recent visit to TIME. "All I see is a lot of yellow weeds." On the other hand, a slowing in the pace of decline during a recession has in the past almost invariably segued into the end of that decline, recession maven Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute said in an e-mail. (See how the recession has affected Americans' spending habits...
...York City firm that compiles a weekly leading index from a secret sauce of indicators. Its latest was released Friday and showed the sharpest decline in the history of the data series, which goes back to 1949. "We have plenty of gloom," says ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan. "But having said that, we haven't gone into doom...
...know what leading indicators look like going into a depression," says Achuthan - ECRI has a monthly index that goes back to 1919, a period covering not just the Great Depression of the 1930s but also a severe if shorter downturn in 1920 and 1921. "The magnitude of decline this index shows at the onset of a depression is materially worse than those today...
...Cycle Research Institute, an outfit with a good record of at least noticing when recessions have begun, the indicators still point toward growth--albeit less convincingly than two months ago. "Having a jobs report come in negative does not mean that a recession has started," says managing director Lakshman Achuthan. But the risk is there, and Achuthan guesses it will worsen if loan markets fail to calm down. If a month from now a borrower with good credit still can't get a jumbo mortgage at a reasonable rate, a recession will be much likelier...