Word: ahmadinejad
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...President Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, when asked why Khatami would have a chance of defeating the incumbent despite the disappointing note on which the reformist left office in 2005. "Expectations are low enough that people would be happy if he returned things to how they were at the start of Ahmadinejad's presidency... People know this is a critical moment for Iran because the Obama presidency is an opportunity this country needs to take advantage of. Whether we do or not, depends on [who is] president here...
...Reformist activists say their unofficial polling show that Khatami would beat Ahmadinejad by a two-to-one margin. "The surveys may show great support for Khatami," says Majid Hosseini, a political analyst in the camp of the Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, "but the reformists are ignoring an important factor: our surveys show that those supporters won't actually show up at the polls to vote. They won't participate, because they have already been through this scenario for two terms and nothing happened...
...Although most people questioned in an unscientific survey on the streets of Tehran said they won't vote for Ahmadinejad, many believed that the incumbent would still carry the rural areas. "He's been good to the provinces," says sportswear merchant Ali Paykani, 53. "He's laid water and gas pipelines, and given them agricultural loans. Here in the bazaar, no one wants him to be president again, but these elections are decided by the people in the provinces...
...high negative feelings towards both the incumbent and his predecessor may open the way for a third candidate. "Both Ahmadinejad and Khatami have strong opponents," says Qalibaf aide Hosseini, adding, "In Iran, opposing votes are more important than supporting votes. That's why a third candidate like Qalibaf may have better chances at winning...
...stakes are as high as they've ever been, with a consensus among reformists and pragmatic conservatives that the fate of their country depends on being able to wrest the presidency away from Ahmadinejad. But whether that consensus translates into an effective electoral challenge remains to be seen...