Word: ahmadinejad
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...only three Presidents in the Islamic Republic's history who were not clerics, Ahmadinejad is a bit of an outsider in his own party. Playing political chicken with some of the most powerful figures in the theocracy is unlikely to end favorably. Meanwhile, the hard-liners who consolidated their power in the aftermath of the election crisis are now seeing Ahmadinejad not just as too much of a wild card but also as too moderate...
...stand-off threatens to tear apart the already fratricidal conservative faction. Ahmadinejad's enemies smell blood, and there is speculation that they may act to turn him into a lame duck, or worse, a sacrificial goat, before his second term even starts. To show that he can hold his own, Ahmadinejad on Sunday, July 26, fired his Intelligence Minister, who had earlier walked out of a Cabinet meeting to protest his vice-presidential choice amid a "verbal quarrel"; his Culture Minister also resigned over the brouhaha. The two Ministers, according to political analysts, were both particularly close to Khamenei...
...Ahmadinejad had originally wanted to fire as many as four Ministers, but in a sign of his weakened position among the ruling hard-liners, he was informed that firing more than one would put his entire Cabinet to a vote of confidence in parliament (he had already removed nine in his first term). Some 200 parliamentarians, a majority in the Majlis, subsequently warned Ahmadinejad to "correct his behavior so that he follows the Leader's opinion seriously...
Amid the turmoil is one almost paranoid bit of speculation: that the public brawl Ahmadinejad finds himself in is just part of the smoke and mirrors orchestrated by Khamenei or his protégés to lend Ahmadinejad more credibility. A political insider in contact with officials in the regime says Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba Khamenei - who holds substantial influence among the ruling clergy and is seen by many as being groomed to succeed the Supreme Leader - still firmly supports the President. "He needs Ahmadinejad around to give himself legitimacy," says the insider. "This is all just...
...case, a sidelined Ahmadinejad would further radicalize the executive branch of the regime. Khamenei has shown in the aftermath of June 12 that he will not compromise with the reformists (although earlier this week, under intense opposition pressure, he ordered a prison housing political dissidents in south Tehran to be shuttered). There is thus little hope that a decommissioned Ahmadinejad would leave room for a compromise replacement who could defuse the postelection crisis; a coup would in all likelihood further fuel the opposition and throw the country into further chaos...