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...southern Sudan become an independent nation when it possesses so little of what defines one? Many aid workers and development experts in Juba doubt it can. They have coined a new term to describe its unique status: pre-failed state. In public, the international community tries to be more upbeat. But optimism is hard with so little time to prepare for separation. Southerners are expected overwhelmingly to choose to split Africa's largest country at a referendum on independence next Jan. 9, and David Gressly, the U.N.'s regional coordinator for southern Sudan, admits, "There is a lot of discussion...
...stop this." So why is South Sudan even trying, when the price of failure could be war and the price of success might be Sudan's disintegration? Why is the world helping? The answers illuminate some harsh realities about the difficulties of engaging a rogue regime, the effectiveness of aid and the limits of international influence...
...doubts remain. For one thing, Bashir might not be sincere. "The NCP [the ruling National Congress Party] takes a long-term view," says John Ashworth, of the IKV Pax Christi aid group and a Sudan veteran of 27 years. "They are prepared to take setbacks and retreat. They're also prepared to lie and say anything." The International Crisis Group's Sudan specialist Fouad Hikmat concurs: "Some people in the NCP say, 'There will be no referendum - instead we will burn this house.' And they can do it." One reason for the north to plan secretly to stop the south...
...Kicking off his party's campaign on Feb. 24, the south's President, Salva Kiir Mayardit, was hardly encouraging. He ordered his troops "not to disrupt or intimidate" rivals and warned his new southern opponents not to campaign "using firearms." Says one veteran southern Sudan aid worker: "Not only is there no capacity in the government, there often seems like there's no interest in setting some up. People are just grabbing pieces for themselves...
...transformation into a largely empty exercise by the pullout of most opposition parties, citing abuse, intimidation and violation of electoral law. (On April 6 a spokesman for the State Department hinted the U.S. favored postponing the vote until a more meaningful contest could take place.) And while every aid project is asked whether the money is being well spent, in southern Sudan there is a scandal over it not being used at all. In 2005, the world set up a $526 million Southern Sudan Multi-Donor Trust Fund, administered by the World Bank, to pay for roads, running water, agriculture...