Word: alcoa
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That doesn't mean you can't make money in stocks. Other analysts are more bullish, and even Levkovich believes that some sectors will do well. He expects around midyear a massive shift out of economically sensitive cyclical stocks like technology and basic materials (Alcoa, Dow Chemical, International Paper) into defensive stocks like drugs, foods and beverages. Why? Defensive stocks, which are less vulnerable to the ups and downs of the economy, lagged badly in '03, rising just 8% on average. They now look relatively cheap next to tech (up 40%) and basic materials (up 30%). And as it becomes...
...look for industrial cyclicals with relatively little foreign exposure, like Alcoa (12% foreign earnings) and Weyerhauser (16%). In Europe focus on multinational consumer-goods firms--Glaxo, Heineken, Novartis, Unilever--because they get a lot of revenue from their U.S. operations and would not suffer much from a currency reversal, says Ian Harnett, chief European-market strategist for UBS Warburg. Firms that rely heavily on sales in Europe will remain weak with the Continental economy. "European companies have not managed to restructure and shed costs as rapidly as those in the U.S.," Harnett notes...
...Lizza skips by the irony behind the embrace. When Bush took office, he was so disdainful of investment bankers and the financial markets that he rejected the suggestion that he include a Wall Street savant, similar to Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, on his economic team. Instead he made Alcoa CEO Paul O'Neill, who shared Bush's negative views of Wall Street, his secretary of the Treasury. As his national economic adviser Bush chose Larry Lindsey, an economist and former Fed governor who was so suspicious of the markets that he refused to invest his own money in them...
...Dick Cheney, a friend from their days together in the trenches of the Ford Administration, who lured Paul O'Neill from the executive suite at Alcoa and persuaded him to become George W. Bush's Treasury Secretary. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan loved the choice, the Vice President boasted in private two Decembers ago--and surely what made Greenspan happy would tickle the markets too. Except it didn't work out that way. A respected executive whose blunt talk the President at first found refreshing, O'Neill never emerged as a persuasive advocate for the Administration's economic policy...
...good roll in the dirt over such issues as the definition of a market bubble. Says one spectator: "It's like a boxing match but with highly dweeby language." Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, who prides himself on his real-world pragmatism, honed during 13years as head of Alcoa, belittles Lindsey's academic theories by telling war stories from his boardroom days. Inreturn, Lindsey once denounced an O'Neill suggestion as "yet another bad idea...