Word: allawi
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...forced by realpolitik to accept affiliation with Baghdad, meaning that they seek the loosest possible federation for a new Iraqi national state, with plenty of minority veto safeguards. But Grand Ayatollah Sistani is strongly opposed to accommodating Kurdish aspirations at the expense of the central state, and if Allawi's showing gives him enough seats in the Assembly, the Kurdish leaders may be more inclined to throw their support behind him. And then there's the challenge for the Shiite alliance of finding terms for accommodating the Sunnis in the constitution-making process. The last thing the UIA can afford...
...Allawi's fate? We won't know for weeks...
...insurgents continue to deliver on their promise to bathe Iraq's election in blood, the pollsters of the International Republican Institute, whose board members include various GOP luminaries, are talking up U.S.-appointed prime minister Iyad Allawi's chances of beating the odds and staying in office. The reason? The strong clerical influence in the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance list may well be alienating more secular Shiites. Still, the more widely held view is that the best Allawi can hope for is a good second-place showing behind the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance list backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani...
...Allawi's finance minister, Adel Abdel-Mahdi, who is considered a candidate for prime minister on the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance list says that if his coalition, as expected, wins a dominant share of the vote, the best Allawi can hope for is to remain a cabinet minister. Note to readers: Even once the final election results are known, which may be a week or more from Sunday, Allawi's fate will be far from clear. The new government will be created through a series of steps that begins with the new National Assembly appointing a three-person presidential council...
...Iraqis will ask the U.S. to leave remains something of a mystery. The major Iraqi coalitions appear to be sending mixed messages, telling the Americans that they're needed to maintain security, but telling Iraqi voters that they have a plan to get the Americans out. Allawi made clear this week that his plan was to ask them to leave only when Iraqi security forces are ready to assume responsibility. But as the Economist points out, that would mean U.S. troops remaining in Iraq for years yet. "The Iraqi forces are utterly feeble," the magazine notes. "At present, only some...