Word: allawi
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Once seen as an American puppet, Iyad Allawi is the new Comeback Kid of Iraqi politics. The results of the general election announced Friday, March 26, show that Allawi's secular Iraqiya block has won 91 seats in the 325-seat Iraqi parliament - well short of a majority, but two more than its nearest rival, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law slate...
...from certain that Allawi will get al-Maliki's job. State of Law and other blocs have already indicated they will contest the results and demand recounts. Even if the results announced today hold up to scrutiny, there's a chance al-Maliki will be able to pull together a coalition to form the new government and retain the Prime Ministership. Meanwhile, the main Shi'ite bloc, the National Iraqi Alliance, won 70 seats; the main Kurdish alliance got 43. A simple majority of 163 seats is needed to govern. (See a 2004 interview with then Prime Minister Allawi...
...Iraq braces for what could be weeks and weeks of political horse-trading, there's no doubt Allawi, 65, a physician, has momentum on his side. Such a comeback seemed highly unlikely just three years ago, when Allawi was regarded as a political has-been...
...Allawi currently leads Maliki by about 9,000 votes. While either candidate could yet pull out in front, the result has not only denied any one bloc the ability to form a government on its own, but may also have failed to give any of the contenders a clear mandate to take the lead in post-election coalition negotiations. Meanwhile, the slow vote counting is doing little to inspire confidence, with each announcement of partial results sparking another round of posturing, jockeying, and rumors, one of which held that Maliki had been shot in the leg. All the major coalitions...
...Another major stumbling block in the negotiations to form a government will be the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and the other disputed areas in northern Iraq. In a surprising turnaround, the Kurdish parties appear to have lost Kirkuk by a slim margin to Allawi's list, which has taken a hard line against Kurdish claims to the city. Since Maliki - whose current government was installed with Kurdish support, but dragged its feet on Kurdish claims to Kirkuk - now has fewer possible partners to form a government, he may find himself more dependent on them than ever. And that would...