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...buildings: hotels, aid compounds and even some government ministries are built from prefab cabins and shipping containers. There are a few businesses, a few score police, a handful of schools, one run-down hospital and several hundred bureaucrats. With the arrival of ever more aid workers, there is now also the occasional traffic jam of white SUVs on Juba's five tarred roads and a small clutch of bars to soak up those expat salaries. But it hardly suggests the improbable reality now dawning on the place: barring war, famine or genocide - and all are possible - in 10 months this...
...peaceful Sudan was to remake it as a place where all Sudanese had a say. They planned to achieve this through a national election on April 11, which, if free and fair and inclusive, would weaken Khartoum's grip. The south, which suffered most from Khartoum's discrimination, would also be granted a referendum on secession...
...That bad faith reinforced enthusiasm for separation in the south. "People felt they would remain second-class citizens inside Sudan forever," says Ann Itto, deputy general secretary of the southern Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). Independence became the official southern goal. Under the CPA, it was also an option. Which is how, by backing a peace deal, the world now finds itself also supporting the breakup of Sudan by default...
...persuaded him in February to agree to a cease-fire with the more Islamist of the Darfur rebels (and Chad, which supports them) in return for their support. The largest group, the Justice and Equality Movement, may even end up with Cabinet seats. In the south, the approaching referendum also seems to have convinced Bashir to accept the possibility that twice provoked the north to war. "If the result of the referendum is separation," he said in a speech in the south in January, "the Khartoum government will be the first to recognize this decision. We will support the newborn...
...doubts remain. For one thing, Bashir might not be sincere. "The NCP [the ruling National Congress Party] takes a long-term view," says John Ashworth, of the IKV Pax Christi aid group and a Sudan veteran of 27 years. "They are prepared to take setbacks and retreat. They're also prepared to lie and say anything." The International Crisis Group's Sudan specialist Fouad Hikmat concurs: "Some people in the NCP say, 'There will be no referendum - instead we will burn this house.' And they can do it." One reason for the north to plan secretly to stop the south...