Word: analysts
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...TARP funds are a relatively inexpensive way to fund your operations these days," says Ray Soifer, a former top Wall Street analyst and a longtime bank consultant. "The problem I see is that banks are rushing to save every penny and nickel in order to pay back TARP instead of lending, which is one of the ways they make money...
...stress tests will not be allowed to pay back TARP funds until they can raise money on their own. Some banks have been able to venture out into the market on their own, but the rates they are now paying investors - without government backing, that is - are significantly higher. Analyst Brad Hintz of Bernstein Research estimates that JPMorgan, one of the healthiest banks, will have to pay three percentage points more per year to borrow without the FDIC guarantee. That would boost the interest JPMorgan has to pay on five-year loans to 6%, from an FDIC-backed rate...
...Banks exiting the TARP program are also looking to buy back the warrants they issued to the government in order to receive TARP funds. David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights, estimates that it would cost JPMorgan nearly $2.6 billion to buy back their warrants from the government. "Banks may have to spend substantial sums to pay back their TARP warrants," says Hendler. Proponents of the banks paying back the government say the higher borrowing costs will only be temporary. As the market improves, banks will be able to issue bonds on their own at lower rates. Indeed, so-called bank...
...worse before it gets better. More competition is on the way. Melco Crown on June 1 is slated to open its City of Dreams project in Cotai, across the street from Adelson's Venetian, adding a 520-table casino and a Hard Rock Hotel to the market. Still, some analysts believe Macau's fortunes are starting to improve. Aaron Fischer, gaming analyst at brokerage CLSA in Hong Kong, says that China's economy is strengthening, which could benefit the city's tourism industry. He also notes the Chinese government seems to be loosening its tight visa restrictions on Chinese visitors...
...Most analysts doubt direct Iranian involvement. There is speculation that rogue elements of Iran's Revolutionary Guard are to blame, the same way members of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency are known to abet militants in the eastern borderlands. Others point out the arms might be smuggled in from third countries. But there is consensus that Tehran, despite its historical aversion to the Taliban, has shown a willingness to "interfere in Afghan affairs as leverage against the United States when threatened," says Haroun Mir, a security analyst in Kabul...