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There are several reasons for all this caution among economists. One is that the numbers aren't all that positive, and a few good days could easily give way to a disappointing run. Also, there's a lot of noise in the data, and seeming turning points are sometimes just the product of flawed measurement and random chance. (See the 25 people to blame for the financial crisis...
...value of doing this is it would clarify which banks are and which banks aren't undercapitalized," says Harvard Law professor Lucian Bebchuk, whose September proposal for toxic-asset purchases by competing investors seems to have provided a template for Treasury's plan. "It's reasonable to expect that restarting the market for troubled assets will lead us to discover that some banks are in a healthy position and will make it absolutely clear that some banks are in an unacceptable position...
Optimism, meanwhile, is associated with a happier and longer life. Over the course of a recent eight-year study, University of Pittsburgh researchers found that optimistic women outlived dour ones. Which may be good news for the motivational gurus out there, but what about the rest of us who aren't always so chipper? Are we destined for sickness and failure? Or is it possible to master the principles of positivity the same way we might learn a new hobby or follow a recipe...
...still aren't convinced that your doomsaying ways can ever be changed, consider this: only about 25% of a person's optimism may be hardwired in his genes, according to some studies. That's in contrast to the 40% to 60% heritability of most other personality traits, like agreeableness and conscientiousness. Science suggests that the greater part of an optimistic outlook can be acquired with the right instruction - a theory borne out in a study of college freshmen by Seligman. Pessimistic students who took a 12-week optimism-training course devised by Seligman - which included exercises like writing a letter...
...everything really has changed. More than a year into the Great Recession, we still aren't sure if there's a bottom in sight, and six months after the financial system began imploding, it's still iffy. The party is finally, definitely over. And the present decade, which we've never even agreed what to call - the 2000s? the aughts? - has acquired its permanent character as a historical pivot defined by the nightmares of 9/11 and the Panic of 2008-09. Those of us old enough to remember life before the 26-year-long spree began will probably spend...