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What tells you how heavily to weight each factor? Our accumulated judgment. Our rankings aren't social science in the sense that we're not doing peer-reviewed rankings; we're not submitting our conclusions and our weighting system to a group of academics and letting them decide if they are right or wrong. We do meet regularly with academic experts about the relative importance of the factors that we use. And we have been doing this for 25 years...
...detect honesty, we look at the wrong kinds of nonverbal behaviors, and we misinterpret them. The problem is that there is no direct correlation between someone's nonverbal behavior and their honesty. "Shiftiness" could also be the result of being nervous, angry, distracted or sad. Even trained interrogators [aren't] able to detect deception at [high] rates. You might as well flip a coin to determine if someone is being honest...
What's more, a lot of the time, we don't want to detect lies in other people. We are unwilling to put forward the cognitive effort to suspect the veracity of statements, and we aren't motivated to question people when they tell us things we want to hear. When we ask someone, "How are you doing?" and they say, "Fine," we really don't want to know what their aches and pains are. So we take "Fine" at face value. (Read a TIME story on ground rules for telling lies...
...turn a verbal clash between demonstrators into a shoot-out. "In a heated atmosphere," Petro argues, "it's a recipe for disaster." Most critical, according to Petro, author of Standing Next to History: An Agent's Life Inside the Secret Service, is the message the guns send. "These guys aren't going to shoot the President," he says of the protesters. "But it's putting the idea in some nut's head that maybe he can get a gun and try to shoot...
...mixed. Some who want the U.S. to leave soon say a delay would postpone the probable power vacuum and accompanying bloodbath, which they hope will be short-lived. But that is the very reason others say it's not time for the U.S. to leave, because Iraqi security forces aren't ready and Iraqi politicians - pampered as they are patriotic - don't yet recognize that the country isn't prepared to go it alone. (See pictures of Obama in Iraq...