Word: armors
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...likely to be short-lived. In any case it would take years to measure the matter adequately. Three years have passed. Now comes a new study that has the advantage of being able to see the effects of busing in a slightly longer perspective. Produced by Harvard-trained David Armor, 39, a senior sociologist at the Rand Corp., the report seems to bear out many of Coleman's early fears...
...Armor measured white flight over a six-year period in 23 Northern and Southern cities that had court-ordered mandatory busing. They also had accessible suburbs, school districts with an enrollment of at least 20,000 students and a large minority population (more than 20%). Then he compared his figures with a projected loss of white students that would have taken place without forced busing, based on established demographic patterns of white exodus and predictable birth rates. The results were remarkably consistent...
...busing, then dropped some, to about 7% to 9%, during the next three years. Predictably, the highest rates of white loss occurred in districts where large numbers of whites were forced to bus into predominantly nonwhite schools. "The size of the flight is both large and long-term," Armor concludes, and he estimates that 30% to 60% of it is due to forced busing...
Critics have already begun finding fault with Armor. He has been taken to task for not running more comparative studies in districts where results proved favorable to busing. He has been accused of exaggerating the influence of busing on white flight. His most significant contribution, the projection of white-flight levels likely to occur without busing, has been challenged. Above all, he has been reminded that the problem is complex, that nobody can tell how long white-flight loss percentages will stay high...
...white flight and forced busing. The fact that sociologists show signs of catching up with everybody else's common-sense observation should be reassuring. But in the spectrum of hope for improving the education of minorities and for guaranteeing constitutional rights that have been violated for a century, Armor's report is depressing. Finding forced busing counterproductive, at least in inner cities, he offers evaluations of alternative measures...