Word: asia
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...firm called Asianomics. In his thick Scottish accent, Walker predicts the worst global recession since the Great Depression. GDP in the U.S., he says, could contract as much as 5% in 2009, and Europe by 2%. He is no more bullish about the economies in his area of specialty: Asia, a region where most of his colleagues foresee more buoyancy. China won't see GDP rise more than 4% in 2009, he says, and the country's economy may not grow at all. "There is going to be precious little growth anywhere," Walker says...
...growing Greek chorus of dispirited prognosticators, consider that he has a history of detecting worst-case scenarios before they came to pass. Back in 1995, Walker, then an economist at brokerage house CLSA, penned a report entitled It's Life, Jim, but Not as We Know It: Asia Decoupling, in which he and his team of economists warned that Asian currency regimes, if not reformed, could be susceptible to Mexico-style meltdowns in two to three years. Two years later, the region plunged into the 1997 Asian crisis, which was triggered by the rapid decline of currencies such...
...China crunch will have repercussions for the rest of the region and the world. The hope among other economists was that trade within Asia, with a stable China at its core, could spare exporters such as Taiwan and South Korea from the worst of the recession in the West. That hope, Walker argues, has evaporated. A major downturn in China "takes the floor away" from growth in the rest of Asia, he says, leaving the region more exposed to the woes of the U.S. and Europe. Most vulnerable are Asia's smaller, trade-dependent economies. He forecasts Taiwan and Singapore...
...world's fastest-growing economy. The reason, he says, is India isn't as exposed to the global downturn as China. "India has not been growing in the past decade because of excess world growth," Walker says. "Domestic demand is the strong component." He also argues that Asia could take the lead in a global recovery, and might show signs of an upturn by early 2010. The turnaround will be sparked by Asian companies, which generally are in healthy shape. "They are much less leveraged" than in the past, Walker says. "There has been an aversion to taking on debt...
...Lankan army has Asia's longest-running insurgency on the ropes: The separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) movement, long been considered one of the world's most fearsome guerrilla armies, lost its last stronghold at Mullaittivu on Jan. 25, and government officials are now confident of a decisive victory in the civil war that has claimed some 70,000 lives and displaced over a million people since...