Word: asia
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...worst-case scenario: a repeat of the Asian crisis of a decade ago, when regional economies and governments were convulsed by devastating recession. That prospect still seems remote. Growth in Asia has remained relatively robust in 2008 and financial sectors sound. But Asian stock markets, most of which have plummeted by 30% or more this year, are signaling harder times ahead. Falling export growth and tighter credit are already beginning to pinch. Merrill Lynch expects GDP growth in Asia (excluding Japan) of 7.7% this year, the slowest pace since 2003. Next year could be worse if the U.S. enters...
...other commodities. Now policymakers are opening the money taps again. In September China's central bank lowered its key interest rate to 7.2%, the first cut since 2002. More central banks are expected to follow. "We're going to move from monetary tightening to monetary loosening in Asia," says Manu Bhaskaran, a Singapore-based economist with the Centennial Group. "Inflation is yesterday's story...
...Asia is somewhat better protected than other parts of the world against recession. For one thing, most Asian governments are in sound financial condition and can prime their economic pumps almost at will, says Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK Research in Singapore. "They all face the downturn with a few more bullets in their pocket than they had in the past," he says. The high growth rates of the past several years provide an additional buffer. With the exception of slow-growing Japan, which may already be in a recession, Asian countries will likely account...
...Still, roughly 25% of final exports from Asia are bound for America, and with consumer spending in the U.S. slipping, the manufacturing engines that drive many Asian countries are starting to sputter. The most vulnerable are those with high dependence on exports, such as Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam. In China, weak export orders combined with rising costs are forcing tens of thousands of small factories to close in the country's industrial zones. The woes of exporters are felt throughout the region, which is tightly linked by trade in manufacturing parts and machinery. Slower sales to the U.S. mean...
...seems impossible to some that new jobs and rising incomes will somehow suddenly vanish. Gao Yajun, a 26-year-old Beijing photographer, sees opportunity in crisis. "My hunch is that it might turn out to be a golden opportunity to make money," he says. That spirit may be Asia's best protection against America's problems...