Word: bae
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...high production and few strikes, everyone seemed to have forgotten the ugly word: recession. Last week, they were sharply reminded of it. The Bureau of Agricultural Economics stared into its crystal ball and found it filled with dark clouds. Unless steps are taken to bolster purchasing power, said BAE, the U.S. will probably have a recession toward the end of this year...
...June Federal Reserve Bulletin, BAE reported what it had found in a representative survey of 3,000 spending units (all the members of a family living together, pooling their income for major expenditures) in the nation. On the basis of its survey, BAE made some startling estimates for the entire U.S. Most significant: the 50,000,000 people living on the lowest salaries, who had been counted on to do much of the buying, have only 1 % of the savings. And they plan to hang on to most of them...
...Money. In 1945, those in the top fifth of the salary brackets received almost half the national income, said BAE. Moreover, this same top fifth already held three-quarters of the savings and liquid assets. The bottom 40% had saved only $1 billion during the war. More than 50% having bank deposits decided not to touch their holdings this year except for emergency...
...Wants the Goods? How big, then, is the postwar market? BAE estimated that only about 2.8 million people definitely intend to buy cars in 1946; another million will probably buy. Another 2.6 million plan to buy a house this year; a half million will probably buy one. But they plan to pay only $5,020, a price few houses are selling at. For other consumer durable goods, 9.9 million consumers expect to spend $320 each ($3 billion in all). But they expect to spend only about 25% from liquid assets; of the rest, 40% will come from current income...
...survey able to find out how much cash was tucked under mattresses and other favored "banks" of low income groups. Nevertheless, the survey might well cause businessmen to revise drastically their estimates of the size of the market, the length of the boom. If BAE was right, and the bulk of the cash was held by a comparative few, then the boom might run out of gas earlier than most economists anticipated...