Word: bailouts
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...crisis from one financial activity to others makes it impossible to know what to expect in macro terms in the medium run. Indeed, Paul Tsang, senior vice president at Polaris Securities in Hong Kong, says he expects the rebound to continue as investors wait to see how the proposed bailout plans affect financial institutions, but that longer-term predictions remain murky. "My initial hunch is consolidation will continue for one or two weeks," he says. "After two weeks, we'll see another change, either up or down." - With reporting by Peter Ritter / Hong Kong (Click here to see photos...
...that kind of state involvement is a central part of the European bailout plans, which involve governments recapitalizing banks in trouble in exchange for a slice of equity. In plain English, that's called partial renationalization. How much equity depends on the size of the bailout, and for the moment, other than in Britain, precise details about which banks will receive how much and in exchange for what remain to be negotiated. Along with the fresh capital, governments are proposing a series of other measures designed to restore confidence in the banking system by guaranteeing deposits, jump-starting interbank lending...
Markets loved it, and have rebounded. And the Europeans are feeling pretty good about it all, especially French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who got the various governments to agree on a coordinated plan after two weeks of nasty bickering. Built into the European bailout is a subtle but unmistakable anti-American touch. For the Europeans are taking a very different tack from the U.S. in mounting their bailout, and quite deliberately so: they think U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson badly messed up his bailout...
Here's their take: it was a big mistake to allow Lehman Brothers to fail, because that just sparked panic in the banking world and led to a seizure of the global system. And they also believe that the $700 billion bailout plan was badly misdirected because it didn't set out to recapitalize the banks in a swift and clear fashion, but rather aimed to buy up the portfolios of toxic assets, which would be far more complicated and time-consuming. Paulson himself is now changing tack and looking to inject money directly into U.S. banks, too, which...
...hopeful precedent, in Sweden, which in the early 1990s solved its own banking crisis by guaranteeing deposits, injecting huge amounts of liquidity into the banking system via the central bank, and forcing banks to write down the value of their assets very quickly. In describing why that bailout worked, Urban Baeckstroem, the former Swedish central bank president who played a central role in the rescue, has identified some other vital measures. The first is that the Swedish government quickly moved to clean up government finances at the same time as it bailed out the banks. The second is that monetary...