Word: balies
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...international financial stability, of course, is the price of oil. TIME'S economists are cautiously optimistic about the near-term energy outlook. France's Chevalier, an energy expert, sees no significant increases in world oil prices during 1981 beyond those following the OPEC meeting in Bali two weeks ago. Though the Persian Gulf war knocked out 2.9 million bbl. per day from Iran and Iraq, according to Chevalier's figures, other OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, increased output to ease the shortfall. Oil importers are also being helped by increased production...
...Iranians arrived in Bali insisting on their right to denounce Iraq's invasion of their country three months ago and its continued detention of Iranian Oil Minister Mohammad Javad Tondguyan as a prisoner of war. When the conference opened, they disrupted the proceedings by propping a 2-ft. by 3-ft. photo of Tondguyan in the chair reserved for Iran's chief delegate. To protect its Oil Minister, the Iraqi delegation packed 17 guns at the conference. Some Iraqi aides wore guns even inside the meeting room in defiance of the security regulations of their Indonesian hosts...
Some energy experts, nonetheless, maintain that the Bali agreement showed again the difficulty that the cartel is having agreeing on prices. Said one European Community official: "You can hardly call a meeting at which over half the tune was spent arguing about a war between the two most powerful military members a resounding show of unity." For more than two years, Saudi Oil Minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani has been trying to restore a unified price for OPEC crude. But the spread between the Saudi bench-mark or "marker" price and the cartel's ceiling price after the Bali meeting...
...impact of the Bali decision on energy-consuming countries will be serious. West Germany's oil bill will climb $3 billion from this year's $30 billion, and Japan figures that it will be paying out another $5 billion on top of 1980's $60 billion. In the U.S. the oil tab will also rise by $5 billion, to perhaps as high as $100 billion. Higher crude prices will quicken the pace of inflation in all Western countries. Washington experts predicted that in the U.S. the OPEC decision would boost the cost of gasoline at the pump...
...above normal for this period, and both the U.S. and Japan have decided to increase their stockpiles. Without that small world glut, OPEC would probably be pushing up prices even faster. Libyan Oil Minister Abdul Salam Zagaar, who is normally one of the OPEC hawks, said after the Bali meeting: won't ask for higher prices if the market won't permit...