Word: balloters
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...Ralph Nader of 2008, the long-shot candidate who acted as a spoiler to help tip an election. He's been a popular and effective Mayor, and he's got the money to finance a dozen campaigns, but independent campaigns tend to fail - partly because getting on the ballot in all 50 states is an excruciating process no matter how rich the candidate is. He'd probably need to win an outright majority to keep the election out of the partisan House, and it's not clear where a pro-gay-marriage, pro-gun-control, anti-death-penalty divorcee...
...TIME Washington bureau chief Jay Carney that while the billionaire Mayor has not yet decided for certain that he will run, his becoming an independent now is part of his plan to make sure that the option is there. In order to collect the signatures to get on the ballot in various states as an independent, Bloomberg has to be officially "unaffiliated...
...other words, Bloomberg was a partisan to the extent that it was useful to him. Now that it is no longer useful to him, he's no longer a partisan. He can qualify for the Presidential ballot as an independent; he can also serve in a Democratic or Republican administration (or on a Democratic or Republican ticket) as an independent. And even if he just serves out his term and returns to the private sector, there's now at least a possibility that the dog catcher candidates will leave him alone...
...most of my morning Wednesday) shows that it isn't impossible for Bloomberg to get enough votes to win, but it is tough indeed. The more interesting question is which reliably Red and Blue states could shift from one side to the other with Bloomberg on the ballot. Of course, determining that in a rigorous way is impossible without knowing who the other candidates will be among the various possible combinations (the all-New York match up of Giuliani versus Clinton versus Bloomberg is particularly imponderable), and without knowing what the mood of the nation will...
...time and inclination to speculate endlessly about every possible eventuality, presidential campaigns live by one simple rule: don't worry about things you can't control. For now, all of the announced Presidential candidates are locked in fierce trench warfare trying to secure their positions on the general election ballot as their party's nominee. Wondering how to beat Michael Bloomberg will wait for another day, down the road and a million political years away...