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...anxiety results from keen awareness of the Japanese experience of the 1990s. Indeed, New York Federal Reserve governor and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee Timothy Geithner was Treasury attaché in the Tokyo embassy for the first half of that decade. That's when a widespread banking crisis led to a credit crunch, an economic slump and eventually interest rates that were lowered to zero by the Bank of Japan. Even so, Japan's banks, which were in the process of repairing their balance sheets, were extremely reluctant to lend. Thus, even though interest rates were...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Rising Threat of Deflation | 11/6/2008 | See Source »

Eastern Europe avoided the first wave of banking problems caused by the sub-prime mess, but as the global economy slows and credit dries up, there's plenty to cry about. Many of the region's capitals borrowed heavily to fuel the boom, and those bills are coming due. On Oct. 26, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced a $16.5 billion bailout for Ukraine, to prevent a run on its banks and shore up its currency. Three days later, the IMF agreed with the World Bank and the European Union on a $25 billion rescue package to restore confidence...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Baltic Mourning After | 11/6/2008 | See Source »

...when the Canadian bank Toronto-Dominion got out of structured products, including CDOs and interest-rate derivatives, CEO Ed Clark was pilloried for leaving profit on the table. Clark, who has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard, made the decision because he couldn't comprehend, to his satisfaction, the credit and equity products that were being traded at the firm. So he decided to quit the business--a move that kept his bank in the black while others suffered. "I'm an old-school banker," he later said. "I don't think you should do something you don't understand...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Reassessing Risk | 11/5/2008 | See Source »

...tempting to say that this time is different, that the pain has been so severe and ongoing, the lessons will be remembered. Four exchanges, with encouragement from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have volunteered to create a clearinghouse for the hazily understood concentrations of risk known as credit-default swaps. Investors are also taking more responsibility. Over the past month, the analytics firm RiskMetrics has seen a rush of pension funds, hedge funds and asset managers signing up for tools to analyze counterparty risk. "The only folks who used...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Reassessing Risk | 11/5/2008 | See Source »

...also believed to have smuggled in longer-range, Iranian-made rockets through smugglers' tunnels leading from Egypt. Reviving the truce has a political advantages for Hamas, too: It makes it easier for them to renegotiate a national unity government with President Mahmoud Abbas, whose Fatah movement controls the West Bank. Also, with a new Administration on its way into the White House, Hamas may want to make the case that it is a responsible player worth engaging, rather than simply shunning as a terrorist organization as the Bush Administration has done...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Will Israel-Hamas Clash Threaten the Truce? | 11/5/2008 | See Source »

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