Word: bankes
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...during the worst of the crisis now head for riskier assets. Throw in concerns over the U.S.'s spiraling deficit and calls from China for an alternative reserve currency, and "the likelihood is the dollar's going to remain under pressure," says Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon in London. "You're going to see it continue to slide." (Watch TIME's video of Peter Schiff trash-talking the markets...
...balance a budget deficit expected to swell this fiscal year to $1.85 trillion - equal to 13% of the country's GDP, a level not seen since World War II - the Federal Reserve could simply resort to printing more money, further flooding the markets with dollars. While the central bank said on June 24 that it had no plans to expand its purchase of government or mortgage bonds beyond the $1.2 trillion earmarked for the purpose in March, not everyone is convinced. "There is always the nagging concern that if this is just a dead cat bounce in the equity markets...
...Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development recently revised its GDP growth forecasts for the country from 6.3% to 7.7% in 2009 and from 8.5% to 9.3% in 2010, on the back of government stimulus spending that appears to be making up for a steep drop in exports. The World Bank has also raised its 2009 forecast from 6.5% to 7.2%, and projects that China will replace Japan as the world's second largest economy in two years. (See 10 things to do in Shanghai...
...Analysts had anticipated some improvement in business confidence in the quarterly tankan survey results released by Japan's central bank. However, the survey, which polls 1,215 large manufacturers as well as thousands of other businesses, indicated companies remain more pessimistic than optimistic and are still reluctant to make capital investments. According to Kanno, the results confirm "the upside momentum is getting stronger, but the level of the economic activities is still very low." Japan's unemployment rate rose for the fourth straight month to 5.2% in May, up from 5.0% in April. Job availability is at a record...
...reverse loose fiscal and monetary policies as the economy improves. For example, raising interest rates - now effectively zero - too quickly could nip a recovery in the bud. "We need to be careful about the response of the market and the economy to the expected government's and central bank's exit policy," says Kanno. "Normalization policy may trigger the next downturn...