Word: bankes
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...Capital cushion: Thanks to the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), Citigroup now has $151 billion in equity, up from $113 billion a year ago. Alas, it will have a $76 billion hit from bad loans. Along with a projected bottom-line loss of $3.5 billion, that drops the bank's capital to $70.5 billion...
...theory, a financial stress test looks at a firm's loans, assesses which will go bad and then concludes whether the bank will have money left when those accounts go unpaid. Pretty clear...
...exception is Citigroup. Since the bank struck a deal with the government to shield $301 billion in losses, we had to account for some investment missteps to value the arrangement. Bank of America has a similar deal, but since the details aren't public, we didn't factor it in. (See pictures of the top 10 scared traders...
...stress test is also influenced by the measure you use. We chose the leverage ratio. To calculate it, divide a bank's equity by its assets, much of which are loans. The lower this ratio goes, the shakier a bank becomes. For example, a 10% leverage ratio means the bank has lent out $10 for every $1 in equity it has. A 5% reading translates to $20 out for every $1 in hand. Regulators like to see a reading of at least 5%. Anything less than that and a bank could become toast. Here's what we found...
...Citigroup Loan losses: Even after making a government deal, the bank is still on the hook for the first $40 billion in loan losses in the pool it has insured. Citi also has $277 billion in other, nonhousing consumer loans, such as credit cards and student debt. Roubini estimates that about 17% of consumer loans will go unpaid nationwide. That translates into a $47 billion river of red ink. Add in everything else (commercial real estate, corporate loans), and Citigroup will have to swallow $106 billion in loan losses...