Word: bankes
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...Recently, research firm RBC Capital Markets revised its estimate for bank failures from 200 to 300 over the next three years to 1,000. RBC said it based its forecast on talks with industry experts and the amount of assets on which banks are not collecting interest as a percentage of tangible capital and loss reserves. (See pictures of the Top 10 scared traders...
...What is disquieting about the RBC figure is not just how large it is. More alarming is that the size of the revision is so big. How could 700 banks be added to the list so quickly? It is hard to say whether it should shake investor confidence in RBC projections or the strength of bank balance sheets...
...economy, no matter how bad it is, in the hope of taking away some clue about their own financial futures. Mostly, they are finding that they are out of luck. The analysis they would like to have is so confusing and contradictory that it is nearly useless. Bank failure rates are only one of the issues that confound people, and they do not to be confounded more than they already...
...course, the government hopes the aggregator bank model it is proposing, with private investors actually making the purchases, gets around the difficult job of having the government figuring out just what these bonds are worth. But it is not clear it will. Even if private investors name the prices, the government will still have to certify the values are reasonable before providing insurance or some other type of incentive to get the purchases complete, if it cares about not throwing more taxpayer money down the rat hole...
...question now is what Obama and his team learn from this experience. As he tries to maintain the consensus for another bank bailout, entitlement reform and perhaps health care reform, will he build his legislative coalitions from the left, as he did with the stimulus? Or construct them more with a centrist audience in mind...