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...which the financially strapped state is issuing in lieu of cash as it grapples with a $24 billion budget crisis--are appearing on websites like Craigslist, where opportunists are buying them at a discount so they can turn a profit when the IOUs come due on Oct. 2. Meanwhile, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Chase agreed to accept the IOUs at face value through July 10. After that, recipients will have to go to check-cashing storefronts or credit unions, which will take them at a fraction of the full price...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The World | 7/20/2009 | See Source »

...compensate is to pay attention to a broader range of forecasts. That's why there's no shortage of publishing and financial firms surveying groups of economists, presenting all of their opinions as "consensus" forecasts. A 2003 study by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta found that the Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, which polls some 50 economists each month, is consistently better than any of its individual members. The researchers dubbed that result a "reverse Lake Wobegon effect": everyone was below average. During economic turning points - like the one we're currently in - the individual forecasts veered further...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...being forecast falls into an ever broader range of possibilities. "The more you think in terms of distribution of outcomes, the better," says Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard economist who chaired President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. "You're always keeping in mind the inherent uncertainty." The Bank of England is a big user of the fan chart when its economists talk about inflation forecasts. Plenty of U.S. agencies, like the Social Security Administration, use them...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

Muszynski, Josh • dismay of after checking bank account online and finding that use of debit card by to purchase a pack of cigarettes resulted in a charge of more than $23 quadrillion...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: This Preposterous Week! Paul Slansky's News Index | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...recent crisis has made clear to investors that the firms are considered by U.S. policymakers to be "too big to fail." The crisis has also created a premium for those firms willing to take on more risk in trades. According to company data, Goldman - which converted to a commercial bank at the height of the crisis in order to gain easier access to cheaper government credit - has significantly reduced its leverage ratio, which measures how much money it borrows, from 27.9 at the beginning of 2008 to 14.2 today. At the same time, Goldman has increased the amount of money...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Goldman's Sudden Boom Could Be a Bust for Obama | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

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