Word: banks
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...analysts say Citi's rush to repay the assistance it got through the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) will make the bank weaker, not stronger. The move will reduce Citi's capital ratios and hurt earnings; it may also accelerate a retreat of foreign investors from the company's shares. Worse, the government is demanding stricter terms from Citi than it did from Bank of America on the repayment deal it struck just a week ago. The different treatment shows that the government remains more concerned about Citi's finances than those of its rivals...
...Citi's deal to pay back the government was reportedly hashed out over a week's worth of marathon negotiations following Bank of America's repayment last week of $45 billion in government assistance. Citi did not want to be one of the few remaining big banks still using the government's crutch.(See the worst business deals...
...Nonetheless, the deal will be costly for Citi. In order to exit TARP, the bank will have to sell $20.5 billion in new shares. Analysts estimate the stock sale will lower the company's earnings per share by about 20%. "One of the basic problems for [Citigroup's] valuation is that it has too many shares as a result of its many rounds of capital raising and exchange offers," says analyst David Hensler, who follows Citi for research firm Creditsights...
...either. In fact, it will do the opposite. Bove estimates that TARP repayment will lower the company's Tier 1 capital ratio to just over 11%, from a recent 12.8%. What's more, with the elimination of the government guarantee of Citi's riskiest assets, which could expose the bank to as much as $250 billion in additional losses, the bank's Tier 1 ratio will sink further, to 10%, according to Hensler. (See 10 big recession surprises...
...Christopher Whalen, managing director of research firm Institutional Risk Analytics, thinks the problem with Citi's repayment has less to do with capital ratios and more to do with waning confidence in the bank around the world. In early December, the investment arm of the government of Kuwait sold its entire investment stake in Citigroup. "Foreign investors like to see the government's stake in Citi," says Whalen. "If the government gets out, investors around the world will flee...