Word: baraker
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...Ehud Barak's apocalyptic campaign ads notwithstanding, the anticipated election victory of Ariel Sharon next Tuesday is unlikely to plunge the Middle East into war. The deadline for the Labor party to substitute the more popular Shimon Peres for the beleaguered prime minister passed Friday, leaving Barak to face the hawkish Likud leader, who currently enjoys a lead of up to 20 percent in the polls. Having escaped the shadow of Peres, Barak may narrow that gap somewhat by Tuesday, but not even the most optimistic gambler would bet on his beating Sharon on election day. Come Wednesday, all stakeholders...
...both regional and global. But power, particularly when it comes in the diluted form that Sharon will likely inherit, is likely to curb his more aggressive instincts. Still, Sharon is a wily operator, and he plans to try and prove that he's more capable of making peace than Barak. Long-term observers of the region wouldn't be at all surprised if Sharon begins by making some dramatic gesture toward the Palestinians, such as lifting the closure of the West Bank and Gaza that has been in force throughout most of the current intifada. Indeed, as a longtime counterinsurgency...
...Benjamin Netanyahu's foreign minister, for example, Sharon persuaded the reluctant prime minister to hand over most of the West Bank city of Hebron to Palestinian control. His objective is not to stop the peace process altogether, but to be in control of it and drive hard bargains. While Barak had been weighing the Clinton plan to retreat from 95 percent of the West Bank and all of Gaza, Sharon is likely to offer short-term withdrawal from only another 13 percent of the West Bank, and invite the Palestinians to negotiate further. Rather than shutting down the process altogether...
...Nobody really knows because Barak doesn't confide in anyone. They simply say he functions best when his back is against the wall. But realistically, his main objective may be to ensure that the margin of his defeat is small, so that he has a credible claim to continue leading the Labor party. If voting goes according to the opinion polls, he'll lose by the largest margin ever for an incumbent prime minister, which would almost certainly cost him the party leadership. If he loses by a margin that leaves him a credible candidate, he could then join Sharon...
...Barak manages to survive as party leader under a Sharon government, he will probably be able to strengthen his position in his own party. But his experience in this election shows what a poisoned chalice the Labor party leadership has become. It's hard to imagine more malicious, backbiting, self-interested group of politicians anywhere in the world. Barak has faced a daily barrage of malicious leaks to the point that you have to feel sorry for the poor fellow...