Word: baraker
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Israelis don't vote for their leaders so much as against their opponents. And that makes an Ehud Barak-Ariel Sharon showdown for prime minister a tight contest, because both men have high negative ratings for their record in Israeli leadership. And with the likelihood of a much smaller turnout than in a full parliamentary election, the race may be too close to call despite Sharon's substantial lead in the polls...
...Barak received a boost Thursday when former Prime Minister Shimon Peres bowed out of the race, failing to secure the backing of the leftist Meretz party. Barak supporters had urged Peres to back out to avoid splitting the peace camp and handing an easier victory to Sharon - but the fact that many polls showed Peres having a better chance than Barak of beating Sharon is an indicator of the scale of the challenge facing the prime minister...
...Even absent the challenge from Peres on his left flank, Barak will certainly struggle to beat Sharon, according to the current poll numbers. But poll numbers may be misleading, since it's far from clear that the supporters of the religious parties and other smaller groups will actually bother to vote. These factions typically express their support for a prime ministerial candidate during a parliamentary election in which they're going to the polls primarily to vote for their own party, but this election is only for the post of prime minister. The rabbis may simply advise supporters...
...Barak has a better chance against Sharon...
...Netanyahu, of course, will still be a major feature in the campaign, urging voters to support the man he'd have challenged for the Likud leadership, Ariel Sharon. But Barak - who may face (and will almost certainly defeat) a primary challenge from former prime minister Shimon Peres - must fancy his chances of reeling in Sharon's lead over the incumbent. After all, Sharon is Israel's most notorious hawk, and even though Israelis have little confidence in the peace process right now, it may be more difficult for Likud to rally a majority behind a man many Israelis fear will...