Word: baumohl
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...Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released Wall Street from months of suspense. It raised short-term interest rates by one quarter point and returned its "bias" to neutral ?- and gave little sign of what it planned to do at its next meeting on August 24. TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl says that?s because Greenspan himself doesn?t know. "If the economy starts to slow down ?- and there are scattered indications that it?s beginning to ?- chances are he won?t raise again," he says. "But with consumer spending at its current blistering pace, he needs to look...
...rally could be its own worst enemy? "My guess is that the Fed won?t do much thinking about what they?ll do down the road in terms of hikes -? they?ll wait until August, when they have two more months of data," says TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl. "And that data will depend a lot on what the markets do between Wednesday and then...
...sell on the news, they may have to make room under that desk for Uncle Alan -? a harmless rate hike will have begotten a serious monetary neurosis. "The Fed won?t announce a bias like last time, because this is the hike it was warning us about," says Baumohl. "It?s shifting back into neutral." Of course, to a market that?s just aching to be unleashed, "neutral" is like raw meat to a roomful of Dobermans. Let?s just hope they don?t choke...
...good reason why Clinton the politician (a far more familiar incarnation) is letting Commerce Secretary Bill Daley do the haranguing, and why he's trying to kill the bill without a well-publicized veto: Al Gore. "Clinton has to be careful about this," says TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl. "The steel unions are very powerful, and they really want these quotas. Gore ?- and Hillary too ?- is counting on union support to win, and Clinton?s opposition is going to make them angry." It already has. The United Steelworkers of America arranged to have steelworkers descend on the Capitol today...
...debt-heavy tech start-ups is especially sensitive to interest rates ?- on the uptick moments after that fateful "preempt" had passed Greenspan?s lips? Because he?s going to do it only once. "A quarter-point hike, which is really nominal, has already been factored in anyway," says Baumohl. "All this talk about preemption means there won?t be a series of hikes. Greenspan is still ahead of the curve." The idea of a preventative tweak ?- and this chairman?s impeccable record says it?s worth a ton of cure ?- had the inflation-fearing bond markets jumping...