Word: bayrou
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...round share added with the Socialists' is only 36.2%. And if much of Jean Marie Le Pen's 10.4% transfer their support to the tough-on-immigration Sarkozy, the outcome of the presidential race will be decided by the 18.5% of voters who backed split-the-difference centrist Francois Bayrou. Bayrou only recently began distancing himself from Sarkozy and the ruling conservatives after having been a close ally (and twice member of government) of French conservatives for much of the past two decades...
...buzz Sunday night on Rue Solferino was that to lure Bayrou voters behind Royal, Socialists would seize on another factor in first-round polling: Le Pen's collapse, which saw his share of the vote almost halved from the tally he scored in 2002. Much of that erosion, analysts say, came as a result of Sarkozy's unabashed efforts to seduce Le Pen voters with hard-line positions on crime, immigration, and dealing with France's troubled suburban housing projects. Socialist supporters believe that by associating Sarkozy with the politics of Le Pen, they can persuade centrist voters to back...
...that won't be easy. Many influential figures from Bayrou's Union for French Democracy (UDF) party had already joined the Sarkozy campaign before the first round; the majority of UDF members are thought to favor Sarkozy's liberal economic program more than they resent his gestures to the extreme right. That leaves independent centrists and Socialists whose disdain for Royal sent them flocking to Bayrou in the first place - a demographic essential to lure back, with early polls showing Sarkozy beating Royal in the run-off 54% to 46%. "This is an entirely new campaign," Lepetit says...
...Party member Sanchez agrees that Bayrou centrists can be drafted to push Royal past Sarkozy into the Elysee. But even if that fails, Sanchez echoes a sentiment heard all down the Rue Solferino Sunday night. "At least this time, voters have a clear choice between two contrasting programs," Sanchez notes. "The next president won't win on default...
...speeches Sunday night, Sarkozy and Royal both opened their ranks to backers of vanquished candidates, suggesting the two weeks up to the May 6 final will doubtless be busy with closed-door bargaining with Bayrou. But even Bayrou voters seem torn on whom to support. "In terms of the method and manner she'd govern France, Sego is closest to Bayrou," comments Pascal Benazet, a 34-year-old financial marketing researcher at Bayrou's campaign headquarters after the first round results came in. "But in terms of economic policy, Sarkozy is closer to Bayrou." And like everyone else looking...