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...years, a handful of petroleum geologists, including me, have been predicting peak oil before 2007, but in an era of cheap oil, few people listened. Lately, several major oil companies seem to have got the message. One of Chevron's ads says the world is currently burning 2 bbl. of oil for every barrel of new oil discovered. ExxonMobil says 1987 was the last year that we found more oil worldwide than we burned. Shell reports that it will expand its Canadian oil-sands operations but elsewhere will focus on finding natural gas and not oil. It sounds as though...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Future of Energy: Viewpoints: It's the End of Oil / Oil Is Here to Stay | 10/23/2005 | See Source »

...fraction of oil that has not yet been produced. In other words, the fewer the fish in the pond, the harder it is to catch one. Peak production occurs at the halfway point. Based on the available data about new oil fields, there are 2,013 billion bbl. of total producible oil. Adding up the oil produced from the birth of the industry until today, we will reach the dreaded 1,006.5-billion-bbl. halfway mark late this year. For two years, I've been predicting that world oil production would reach its peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005. Today, with...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Future of Energy: Viewpoints: It's the End of Oil / Oil Is Here to Stay | 10/23/2005 | See Source »

America currently consumes about 7 billion bbl. of oil a year. When production in Persian Gulf fields was ramped up by 12 billion bbl. a year in the 1960s, global prices collapsed. That made it politically painless for the U.S. to ban almost all new drilling off the Florida and California coasts and then in much of Alaska. With oil, as with textiles, domestic production peaked because others began producing the same stuff cheaper, while we contrived to make our production more expensive. Today Alaska contains 18 billion bbl. of off-limits crude. We've embargoed at least an additional...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Future of Energy: Viewpoints: It's the End of Oil / Oil Is Here to Stay | 10/23/2005 | See Source »

Outside our borders, Alberta's tar sands contain 180 billion bbl. recoverable with current technology, and Calgarians are pumping that oil today. A total of several trillion barrels of oil soak the sands of Canada and Venezuela alone--a century's worth at the current global rate of consumption. Then there are methane hydrates. The U.S contains some 30 trillion bbl. worth of those frozen hydrocarbons off the shores of Alaska, the continental coasts and under the Rockies. There's little doubt they too can be extracted economically. If we try, we'll certainly find cheap ways to transform North...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: The Future of Energy: Viewpoints: It's the End of Oil / Oil Is Here to Stay | 10/23/2005 | See Source »

...Miller sees it, "Five thousand years of commodity-price history" says that oil should be priced at the "marginal cost of production"?the price at which it makes sense for companies to find and extract it from the ground. And that, Miller says, is currently about $40 per bbl. Oil has shot way higher for perfectly rational reasons, from booming global demand to Hurricane Katrina's impact on refining capacity, but overseas producers have every incentive to boost supply at today's prices, says Miller, which should make up for existing shortfalls. "Barring an unforeseen event"?another Katrina...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Bill's Bad Bet | 10/16/2005 | See Source »

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