Word: bearishly
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WHEN ZWEIG TALKS, PEOPLE LISTEN. Analysts who foretold the crash have achieved guru status. Chief among them may be Marty Zweig, 46, who publishes the Zweig Forecast newsletter and manages $1.3 billion in pension funds from his Manhattan headquarters. Zweig turned bearish in September 1987 and predicted that the Dow Jones average would soon plunge 1,000 points, to 1755 (the actual bottom: 1738). In the year since his prediction came true, with most newsletters sagging, his subscriber list has grown 90%, to 15,275 (at $245 a year...
...unexpected rally of the dollar, which was bolstered by the intervention of central banks in the currency markets (see following story). For the week, the Dow was down 27.52 points. As usual, there was a logical, if contorted, economic explanation of why investor sentiment so abruptly turned bearish. The problem started when the Government announced that the U.S. unemployment rate had fallen from 5.9% in November to 5.8% in December, its lowest level since 1979. To most people, that sounds like good news, but nobody has ever accused Wall Streeters of thinking like most people. To a bond trader, lower...
Some equity funds managed to cut their losses because bearish managers had moved away from cyclical stocks, such as steel and tires, and into defensive shares in food and drug companies, which are less vulnerable in an economic downturn. Some funds that specialize in electric and telephone utilities dropped 12% or less. Other prescient managers had built up their cash reserves, which lowered their exposure to the market and allowed them to pay off any redemptions without being forced to sell stocks at a loss. Says John Neff, who manages the Windsor Fund: "We saw a correction coming...
...Analysis Portfolio, reportedly gained 5% during the week of the crash because Garzarelli had moved the fund out of stocks and into cash and Treasury bills. Result: Garzarelli, who bases her prognostications on an elaborate computer model, now sends visible tremors through the market with her predictions, which remain bearish at the moment...
...bearish rout on the stock exchange turned facile assumptions about the 1988 race into so much bull. It silenced complaints that the campaign was devoid of cutting issues and dashed Republican hopes of an election predicated on the Reaganite themes of stability and prosperity. The political futures index tilted toward the Democrats, as mayhem in the markets revived fears of recession. Four times in this century the Democrats have regained the White House following a Republican incumbency, each time against the backdrop of a sharp economic downturn...