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...Still, like the names themselves, scenarios about the timing are speculative. The cardinals could, in these final 48 hours before they move together into the Santa Marta hotel inside the Vatican, begin to converge on an outsider to point to in the early voting. Or they could find themselves waiting in vain to see if someone new emerges in the early balloting, before turning to one of the established figures. In any case, if there is no Pope by Friday, alarms of "A Church Divided!" may start ringing around the world...
...John Paul's funeral, is letting his colleagues know that he doesn't want to be an early candidate. If no consensus grows around an alternative, he might then be willing to be a sort of "draft" candidate, the source told me. In the secret balloting that will begin Monday afternoon, a successful candidate must receive more than two-thirds of the votes. Often, if a certain candidate starts to gain more votes through consecutive balloting, he can build the momentum necessary to reach the two-thirds threshold. Assuming that Ratzinger truly is not angling for the job, one lingering...
...cafes further and further away from St. Peter's Square - some Vatican sources don't like talking when other journalists or clerics might walk by. What I learned was that the discussion of a new pope has not really progressed since John Paul II died, and it will likely begin in earnest only after his burial. And my sources tell me that the cardinals are considering imposing a total media blackout even before the conclave begins to prevent speculation on the outcome of their deliberations...
...sources did relate, though, that there's a sense among many of the cardinals that they're looking to see if an Italian consensus candidate exists. If one does not emerge in the early ballots, they'll begin to look elsewhere. On the basis of my conversations, I'd say the top three contenders remain Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, the Arcbishop of Milan; Cardinal Claudio Hummes, the Archbishop of Sao Paulo in Brazil; and Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, the head of the Vatican's Congregation of the Doctrine of the Faith, who has been John Paul II's chief theological enforcer. Tettamanzi...
...conclave to choose a new pontiff has been scheduled to begin Monday, April 18. There will be one ballot that afternoon, which traditionally is a chance for Cardinals to vote for a sentimental choice as a special honor. The real race begins Tuesday morning, with the first two ballots. More to come in this diary, of course, on what's at stake in the campaign for succession...