Word: behravesh
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...heading toward another spell of cold comfort? That was the question TIME posed to its Board of Economists. "It will feel like a jobless recovery largely because our point of reference is the boom years of the '90s, when unemployment went all the way down to 3.9%," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for the consulting firm DRI-WEFA. "When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse...
...BEHRAVESH: One of the unusual things about productivity in this whole cycle is that it continued to rise during the expansion, whereas in the normal cycle, it tends to tail off at the end of the expansion. This time it actually accelerated during the expansion...
...BEHRAVESH: There is something of a trade-off between earnings growth and jobs growth, at least in the very near term. In that sense I think pressure on earnings will slow down job growth. We are all saying that...
...BEHRAVESH: Housing is part of the answer. What the Fed succeeded in doing this cycle was turning housing from a destabilizing force in the economy to a stabilizing force. Housing won't boom the way it has been. We won't get 8%, 9% annual increases in the average price of a house, but it won't collapse. It will go down to a 2%, 3% increase. I don't think it will fall off the face of a cliff...
...BEHRAVESH: Right now, two things are weighing down the market. One, the market got way ahead of itself in terms of the strength of recovery and is now coming to Earth. The second is Enronitis. As for fears of a dirty bomb or other attacks, they play into it day to day or week to week, but I don't think that is really what is pulling the market down...