Word: behravesh
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...billion of debt. So far, the markets have hardly blinked, and the reason is plain: this train wreck has been coming for two years, giving those foreign banks holding Argentine paper plenty of time to hedge their bets or make provisions against losses. The default, says Nariman Behravesh, chief global economist at DRI-WEFA, an economic consultancy in Massachusetts, was so well anticipated that "foreign investors who wanted to get out got out." And unlike 1997-98, when financial crises rolled around the world, this year shows no sign yet of "contagion." Neither Brazil nor Mexico, the two largest Latin...
...Shades of the '70s? No. Non-OPEC oil sources have increased significantly since then. But higher energy costs are like an ugly tax. Consumers shelled out an extra $50 billion last year because of higher gas prices. "The danger is that OPEC could be too successful," says Nariman Behravesh, chief global economist for DRI-WEFA, an economic consulting firm. "If they hang tough with their quotas and oil prices stay high as the world economy slows down, the downturn could be even more pronounced...
Japan faced critical elections last weekend that will help determine how successful Koizumi will be. "Odds are Koizumi will fail to get through most of his reforms," says Behravesh. "It's an ugly scenario for Japan and for the U.S." Why will he fail? Many in the Japanese parliament are worried that the medicine will be too harsh. Indeed, some analysts predict that this PM won't be around long. "Koizumi is trying single-handedly to take on the Old Guard of the Liberal Democratic Party and one way or another, he's going to get knifed," says Sean Callow...
There's more. Large Japanese companies will begin selling their U.S. assets to raise cash. "We're already seeing this selling in the U.S. stock market and in real estate," says Behravesh. "Treasury bonds may be next." If so, U.S. interest rates could go higher, and that would downshift the economy, no matter what Alan Greenspan does...
...There's more. Large Japanese companies will begin selling their U.S. assets to raise cash. "We're already seeing this selling in the U.S. stock market and in real estate," says Behravesh. "Treasury bonds may be next." If so, U.S. interest rates could go higher, and that would downshift the economy, no matter what Alan Greenspan does...