Word: behravesh
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...Shades of the '70s? No. Non-OPEC oil sources have increased significantly since then. But higher energy costs are like an ugly tax. Consumers shelled out an extra $50 billion last year because of higher gas prices. "The danger is that OPEC could be too successful," says Nariman Behravesh, chief global economist for DRI-WEFA, an economic consulting firm. "If they hang tough with their quotas and oil prices stay high as the world economy slows down, the downturn could be even more pronounced...
...Japan faced critical elections last weekend that will help determine how successful Koizumi will be. "Odds are Koizumi will fail to get through most of his reforms," says Behravesh. "It's an ugly scenario for Japan and for the U.S." Why will he fail? Many in the Japanese parliament are worried that the medicine will be too harsh. Indeed, some analysts predict that this PM won't be around long. "Koizumi is trying single-handedly to take on the Old Guard of the Liberal Democratic Party and one way or another, he's going to get knifed," says Sean Callow...
...award for best performance this year may belong to Latin America. In the wake of the 1994 Mexican-peso crisis, "the region has really bounced back in a remarkable way," says Nariman Behravesh, chief international economist for DRI/McGraw-Hill, an economic consulting company based in Lexington, Mass. In Mexico, between April and June, the economy surged 8.8% over the same period a year earlier. Growth is expected to hit 6% in 1997 and 4.8% in 1998. Inflation, which reached 34.4% in 1996, will be sliced in half by the end of next year. Brazil's economy will expand 4% this year...
...suffered a currency run a la Mexico and for similar reasons: overspending, a loss of competitiveness and the perception that its currency was overvalued. As the Thai baht slid 25% against the U.S. dollar over the past 12 months, other currencies also fell. Then stock markets swooned. Economist Behravesh predicts little growth (1.5%) this year in Thailand, after an annual average of 9% for the past decade. But it will rebound to 3% in 1998. Indonesia will grow 6.5% in 1997 and 6% the following year. The Philippines, which rose a record 5.5% in 1996, will slip back to about...
...extra $350 a year -- or 97 cents a day -- that the plan gave the average family would simply come from the rich without creating new spending power. "This will not do anything in the long term to increase people's standard of living," says Nariman Behravesh, president of the Pennsylvania forecasting firm Oxford Economics. "It deals more with politics than with economics...