Word: belarus
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...border disputes with Norway and Japan, but the real emotional outbursts come with the former Soviet states, many of whom are sidling up to NATO or the E.U. Among the weapons wielded: troop deployments, trade embargoes and immigration quotas. Late last year Russia hiked gas and oil prices to Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine, all countries resisting the Kremlin's political embrace. With former satellites like Azerbaijan planning oil pipelines that bypass Russia, expect more hurt feelings--and more rough play...
...BELARUS In early '07, Russia shuts off crude oil supplies, alleging siphoning of oil meant for other nations...
That's given Russia immense power to dictate terms for much of Europe. In one power play, the Russians briefly blocked gas last winter to Ukraine, leaving millions freezing. In December, Putin threatened to do the same to Belarus unless it began paying Western-level gas prices. Belarus agreed. Infuriated that Azerbaijan's new BP-operated pipeline to the West bypasses Russia, Putin has said he intends to double gas prices for Azerbaijan, which in turn threatened to stop exporting its oil through the Russian-controlled section of the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline to the Black Sea. "We want...
...Lukashenko has since dragged his feet at re-federation, and Belarus now fears that the Russians will simply go ahead and find a way to end its independence. That fear may itself be fueled by Russian paranoia about national security, which is never far from the surface. While recent threats to the Russian state have come from Islamist radicals, Moscow's military elite still harbors apprehensions about NATO. An attack by the Western alliance and the U.S. always plays a part in defense planning. And how is Belarus involved in Russia's fear of NATO? For about 10 years...
...presides over a moribund economy, Lukashenko has taken to guerrilla tactics to survive, brazenly ordering his officials to take Russian oil from the pipeline. He knows that Belarus alone cannot stand up to the Russian behemoth, much less pay for energy prices Moscow has imposed on it. However, Lukashenko is betting that when countries like Poland and Germany feel his pain, Moscow will begin to feel the heat...