Word: bergsten
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...then, cautions C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank. More bearish than Hormats, he will allow that "maybe the worst of the crisis is behind us." But Bergsten emphasizes the difficulties of significant recovery--primarily that it will require "deep changes in banking systems, very fundamental changes in corporate governance systems...
...Bergsten's view, however, another force will also press the dollar down. The U.S. current-xaccount deficit is headed for a record $300 billion in 1999. It would be even worse if gains in financial transactions and services such as advertising and insurance were not offseting part of the gargantuan deficit in exchange of goods. The trade deficit, or excess of merchandise imports over exports, will be roughly $350 billion. So the U.S. is spilling too many dollars into currency markets for the greenback to maintain its present value against most other moneys, euro or no euro...
...slowdown that does not turn into a recession, Bergsten warns, is still likely to lead to "a very significant increase in U.S. trade protection." Even a modest slowing of output and rise in unemployment, he fears, will be widely blamed on cheap imports. The Clinton Administration may give in to protectionism to please the AFL-CIO, which it is " beholden to" for the Democratic successes in the November elections. Hormats voiced fears that protection is all too likely to win support from the Republican right, now a stronghold of economic nationalism, as well as the Democratic left, creating a strange...
...most economists. C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics, figures that export jobs pay about 15% to 20% more than nonexport jobs. He adds, "Whatever Buchanan saves for Roger Milliken [a major textile employer] in South Carolina, he loses for Boeing," which is heavily dependent on aircraft exports. "And Boeing jobs pay so much more than textile jobs that this would be a net loss...
...markets. In the second quarter of this year, the U.S. trade deficit zoomed to $17.8 billion, up from $5.9 billion in the previous quarter. "That cut the second-quarter growth rate for the country in half. That's how dependent we are on the global economy," says C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics. Just as in the U.S., the outlook in Europe and Japan is for a drawn-out recovery...