Word: bidness
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Cadbury swiftly dismissed Kraft's bid as too low, but speculation is running rampant on Wall Street that Cadbury is now in play and that either Kraft will sweeten its offer or another rival, such as Hershey, will step up. Industry experts speculate that bidding could exceed $21 billion before a merger is clinched. Read "Chocolate, Meet Choco-Luxe...
Until now, the trust has steadfastly insisted it prefers to go it alone, even rejecting a $10.2 billion bid made jointly by Cadbury and Nestlé in 2002. It does, however, hold the rights to manufacture and distribute Cadbury's products in the U.S. through a 1988 licensing agreement, notes Kirk Saville, a Hershey spokesman...
Some industry experts now wonder if the Hershey Trust will rethink its stand in light of the Kraft bid. After all, if Kraft ups its ante and succeeds in acquiring Cadbury, it would create a combined company that would rival Mars in size and reduce Hershey to a distant fourth in the confectionary market with only a 4% stake, estimates Stifel Nicolaus analyst Christopher Growe...
Hershey could jump-start its growth by making a run for Cadbury, although it would probably be costly. Kraft's current bid, although a 31% premium over Cadbury's closing price on Sept. 4th, the last trading day before the bid was announced, values Cadbury at about 11 times 2009 EBITDA, estimates Growe. This is far below the 19 multiple that Mars paid when it snapped up Wrigley in a $23 billion deal last year. And Cadbury's growth potential, as outlined by the company's CEO Todd Stitzer last year, is bigger than Wrigley's was at the time...
...Hershey, this price tag would be tough to handle on its own and would most likely require 65% equity financing and $225 million in synergies to make financial sense, says Growe. However, Hershey could potentially team up with Nestlé to bid for Cadbury, with Hershey grabbing Cadbury's chocolate business and Nestlé picking up its chewing gum and candy operations. "They could divide and conquer without giving up control of the company," he says...