Word: bigs
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...anyone whose memory contained chips of Paul's amazing facility with a sound he invented and perfected. As he told Stephen K. Peeples in the 60-page booklet that comes with the four-CD set Les Paul: The Legend and the Legacy (on the Gold Rush label), "That big, fat, round, ballsy sound with the bright high-end is the Les Paul sound. Nobody else has it." And if that's not enough, he was the original do-it-all recording mastermind: a producer-arranger-performer who carried his recording studio with him, courtesy of a few portable machines...
...then? As the stimulus wears off, I expect that we will flatten out in the big developed economies - not have a double dip as the economic bears would argue, but just flatten out. The thing that is different this time is that the developing countries are coming out of this thing very strongly and their own domestic demand is going to sustain them. So they are going to be an important driving force for the global economy. It's worth noting that developing economies are now 35% of the global economy. They are going to be a new factor...
...big concern in the U.S. is the weak consumer. Can we get a business recovery but no consumer recovery? The consumer is 70% of the U.S. economy, so it's hard to imagine that business can do well unless the consumer is reasonably healthy. But I think the conventional wisdom has become excessively pessimistic about the condition of the U.S. consumer. People have forgotten the effect that rising equity prices as well as the stabilization of real estate - maybe even a few upticks in residential real estate - will have on the consumer's net worth and his spending-saving behavior...
...recession - they cut capital spending, they cut advertising, they cut employment very, very dramatically. They overcut. In the next six months, we are going to be in a period where businesses hire back aggressively and spend on capital equipment and advertising and all those things very aggressively. (See 10 big recession surprises...
...secular bear market doesn't mean we're in a new bull market. The history is that when you make the bottom of a secular bear market, in almost every situation, there has been a huge rally followed by a long period of churning back and forth in a big, broad trading range, anywhere from three to - in the case of Japan - 18 to 20 years. As for the rally, the usual rebound rally after one of these things is 71% over 17 months. The current rally in the U.S. and Europe has been about 42% over the last five...