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...from certain that Stupak can rally that number, so the White House's decision to use the Nelson language in a reconciliation bill may be a smart political move. According to leadership aides, however, there have been no conversations between the White House and congressional leaders about the abortion issue, which a staffer said had been put on the "back burner." Nor did the White House consult with pro-life Democrats before deciding to go with the Nelson language...
...this week, no one in the House leadership can answer the question of whether the Nelson language would cause some pro-life Democrats who supported health reform in November to vote against a reconciliation bill. There simply is no way of knowing whether the President's approach would garner enough votes to pass...
...basis of conversations with a half-dozen key congressional offices, we can identify four categories of House members who will be crucial to Democratic attempts to pass a bill. The first group includes Democrats who voted for the Stupak amendment and yet opposed final passage of the House bill. There were 23 of these Democrats, mostly Representatives from Southern congressional districts, like Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Gene Taylor of Mississippi. It's safe to say that Democratic leaders shouldn't worry about which abortion language is preferred by these members because that wasn't the issue that prevented...
...second group will also probably avoid lobbying attention, but for a different reason. Roughly 17 Democrats with mixed voting records on abortion issues voted for the Stupak amendment and the House bill. These Democrats are not members of the congressional pro-life caucus but were concerned about what appeared to be federal funding of abortion in the original version of health reform. However, they would have settled for something far short of the strict prohibition in the Stupak amendment, and they are likely to be comfortable with the Nelson language. (See the top 10 health care reform...
Another 24 members who supported Stupak and the House bill are solidly pro-life. The key question for them is whether they are willing to accept an abortion prohibition that falls short of the Stupak language. No one in the House leadership has polled members on this point to get a head count, but the best guess is that many in this category would be satisfied with the Nelson language. A number of them signed onto a compromise offered last fall by Brad Ellsworth of Indiana - himself a member of this group - that would have strengthened the segregation of subsidies...