Word: blix
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With Hans Blix's Valentine's Day Iraq inspection report less than a week away and the size of the U.S. coalition still very much in doubt, Wall Street is still swathed in suspense - and still finding it unbearable. But what will happen once some clarity on Iraq comes to the markets...
...While Secretary of State Colin Powell's evidence against Iraq was given a respectful hearing at the Security Council on Wednesday, his presentation did not change the positions of France, Russia, Germany and other key skeptics of the need for military action. But things could change significantly when Dr. Blix reports back to the Council on Valentine's Day - Powell, after all, speaks as a representative of Saddam Hussein's most avowed and implacable enemy; Blix is the Council's own objective investigator. If Powell sets out a case, based in considerable part on unnamed sources, that Iraq is refusing...
...Saddam is already in deep trouble with the inspectors. When he reported back to the Security Council on January 27, Dr. Blix noted that although Iraq had allowed inspectors unrestricted access to all sites chosen for inspection, it had blocked unimpeded access to scientists, refused to guarantee the safety of surveillance flights, and, most importantly, had failed to live up to its basic obligation to account for known stocks of chemical and biological weapons. Blix told the Council that the Iraqis would have to do a lot more to be found in compliance with Resolution 1441, and that...
...precondition for returning to Baghdad, Blix and Al-Baradei demanded that the Iraqis allow private interviews with scientists, allow surveillance flights by U2 spy-planes operated by the inspectors, and pass legislation in the Iraqi parliament outlawing weapons of mass destruction. Iraq this week allowed a scientist to be interviewed with no government minder present, and is believed by UN officials to be ready to concede on the other two points. But the inspectors plan to raise the bar a lot higher, warning that "unless there is a drastic change on the part of Iraq" and its willingness to cooperate...
...Iraq remain skeptical of the wisdom and prudence of going to war, if the U.S. decides to invade they have considerable incentive to protect their interests by supporting the action. And the best political cover for making such a switch would be a negative report to the Council from Blix and Al-Baradei. Don't expect a war resolution to pass on Valentine's Day. But unless Saddam makes a dramatic turnabout in the next week, UN authorization for war may come within a matter of weeks of next Friday's report-back...