Word: board
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Republican Alan Greenspan, perhaps the most optimistic member of TIME's board, sees a roller-coaster recession: the economy, after its slight rise, will plunge steeply during the coming winter and spring. Unemployment, which has hovered at about 5.7% for the past year, inched up to 6.0% in August, and a majority of TIME'S board predict that it will reach 8% by next summer, meaning some 8 million Americans will be out of work. That is severe, of course, but not as bad as during the 1974-75 recession, when the jobless rate...
...antidote, several board members favor a tax cut. Heller argues that an early $28 billion reduction for consumers and corporations is "the only way to fly." Joseph Pechman, head of economic studies at the Brookings Institution, agrees on the need for a prompt...
...length and depth of this slump will be largely determined by monetary policy. In the eight weeks since Paul Volcker took over as Federal Reserve chairman, businessmen's basic cost of borrowing money has jumped from 11.75% to 13.5%, the highest in history. Most board members hold that the increases will soon stop but interest rates will remain steep over the next year. Some fear that the Fed may worsen the recession by inducing a classic credit crunch, in which little money is available for borrowing to finance new plants and create jobs...
TIME's board predicts only moderate relief. The peak of inflation has been reached, but the road down will be slow. David Grove, a private consultant and former chief economist for IBM, foresees a 1980 inflation rate of 9.5%, or double the level of only three years ago. Says he: "Inflation will continue as long ahead as we can see." Okun maintains that the latest surge of inflation has placed the economy on a higher price plateau, where it will stay for years to come. Even after the recession is over, he predicts, prices will be increasing...
Greenspan, who as chief economist in the Ford Administration devised the measures that helped pull inflation down from 12.2% in 1974 to 4.8% when Jimmy Carter took office, is the most confident of the board members that stringent fiscal and monetary policies alone can work again. He predicts that if a firm hand is kept on the economy and the political leaders avoid the temptation to stimulate growth just to get elected, inflation will decline to perhaps 6% in 1981. No matter how high the cost of curbing the price plague, concludes Greenspan, some unpleasant medicine taken now will...