Word: bradleyism
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...debates in the books and a commanding lead in the polls, Barack Obama appears to be coasting toward history. But a potential cakewalk makes for dull punditry, and politicos are abuzz over the last hurdle Obama must clear in his path to the presidency: a phenomenon known as the "Bradley effect...
...theory holds that voters have a tendency to withhold their leanings from pollsters when they plan to vote for a white candidate instead of a black one. In 1982, Tom Bradley-the African-American mayor of Los Angeles-ran for governor of California. On the eve of the election, polls anointed him a prohibitive favorite. But on election day, Bradley lost to his white opponent, Republican George Deukmejian. Some experts chalked up the skewed polling to skin color...
...When Hillary Clinton edged Obama in this year's New Hampshire primary - despite data that showed Obama leading - some suspected the Bradley effect had crept back into play. "Since then," Democratic strategist Donna Brazile wrote recently, "pollsters and pundits alike have warned that Obama needs a six-to-nine point lead to overcome the so-called Bradley effect." In recent weeks, the New York Times and Washington Post have both run features examining the phenomenon...
...course, Obama has another, equally arbitrary and more dismaying variable about which to worry: the so-called Bradley effect. The thinking is that white voters might consciously or unconsciously conceal latent racial biases from pollsters, but be swayed by those biases in the booth. These days I’d like to think Obama is Kennedy to McCain’s Nixon, the handsome and clever candidate of the future. But there’s no guarantee he won’t be Jesse Jackson to McCain’s Michael Dukakis...
...good stand-in needs to know a lot more than what words an opponent is likely to use. Another Republican stand-in playing Gore in 2000, former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman, noticed that in a previous debate Gore had left his stool and approached Bill Bradley during an answer - "seeming to try a little physical intimidation to rattle him," Portman says...