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...central pieces are the 1970 treaties of Moscow and Warsaw, which recognized the Oder-Neisse line as Poland's western border and ruled out the use of force in any future disputes between West Germany, Poland and Russia. Brandt made their ratification by the Bundestag contingent upon the conclusion of a satisfactory agreement improving the status of West Berlin...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: EAST-WEST: The Sudden Danger to Detente in Europe | 3/20/1972 | See Source »

Thus the whole fragile structure hinges on ratification of the Moscow treaty by Bonn's Bundestag, where Brandt's governing coalition of Social Democrats and Free Democrats until two weeks ago had a majority of 251 out of 496 seats. That slim margin is now imperiled. First, one Social Democrat Deputy declared himself opposed to the treaties and bolted to the opposition, reducing Brandt's support to 250 votes-only one more than the absolute majority necessary to ensure ratification of the treaties. Two weeks ago, a Free Democrat Deputy announced that he was undecided about...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: EAST-WEST: The Sudden Danger to Detente in Europe | 3/20/1972 | See Source »

...conditions, the treaties would have to be rewritten, which the Soviets would surely refuse to do. Christian Democratic Leader Rainer Barzel takes a sanguine view of the matter. Failure to ratify the treaties, he insists, will not result in "the collapse of the world, only the collapse of the Brandt government...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: EAST-WEST: The Sudden Danger to Detente in Europe | 3/20/1972 | See Source »

...Bundestag will vote on the treaties in May. Meanwhile, there is an outside chance that Brandt's coalition might win the state elections that will be held on April 23 in the traditionally conservative state of Baden-Württemberg. This election could conceivably overturn the opposition majority in the Bundesrat, or upper house, which voted down the treaties in February by 21 to 20. If the Bundesrat reverses course, a simple majority of Bundestag members present and voting, rather than an absolute majority of all 496 deputies, would suffice to pass the treaties. On the other hand...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: EAST-WEST: The Sudden Danger to Detente in Europe | 3/20/1972 | See Source »

...Brandt would undoubtedly fight the ensuing national election campaign on the issue of Ostpolitik. Since polls show a slim majority of West Germans in favor of the treaties, the Chancellor could be returned with an enlarged majority, and push the treaties through. But West Germans are also deeply worried about rising prices and unemployment, and Barzel could win on the issue of economic policy alone. That would leave the Christian Democratic leader in the awkward position of trying to put together his own version of Ostpolitik in the face of open anger on the part of the Soviet Union...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: EAST-WEST: The Sudden Danger to Detente in Europe | 3/20/1972 | See Source »

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