Word: brothers
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...there is no doubt he would have won," says Carlos Malamud, head Latin American researcher at the Royal Elcano Institute, a Madrid think tank. "The fact that he didn't means, first, that his health is very bad, and second, that he needs to reinforce the legitimacy of his brother...
...does the resignation mean real change? After falling seriously ill with gastrointestinal disease nearly 19 months ago, Fidel, 81, temporarily handed power to his 76-year-old brother Raúl, who is now widely expected to be named President of the Council of State when the National Assembly votes on February 24. With his close ties to the Cuban military, Raúl has thus far proved a stable ruler; little detectable reform has occurred under his watch. That consistency owes at least a partial debt to the control that Fidel has continued to exercise, even from his sickbed...
...proposed changes, but nothing's been done. Fidel is always there, monitoring him, tutoring him," says Luís Manuel García, editor of Encuentros, a Madrid-based magazine focused on Cuban affairs. "He's acted as a counterweight to his brother." Malamud expects that even now, that role will not change. "Fidel will continue to be the guardian of orthodoxy. He'll continue to block any change...
...least one person who knows the two brothers personally doubts that, even with Fidel gone, Raúl will initiate change. Idámis Menéndez, Fidel's former daughter-in-law who has lived in Barcelona since 2001 and is no longer permitted to return to Cuba, says, " Raúl thinks very differently than Fidel. But he's lived his whole life in his brother's shadow, and the ministers and everyone else in the government are still the same. Raúl's not going to do anything now that would jeopardize his own interests...
...which indicates that the youthful outburst may not have been the spontaneous Havana Spring it was widely billed as, but rather a part of something quietly sanctioned by Cuba's interim President, Raul Castro. Since being tapped by his older brother, Fidel Castro, as the country's provisional leader in the summer of 2006 after Fidel underwent major intestinal surgery, Raul, 76, has pushed a more pragmatic, even reform-minded agenda that has encouraged limited public debate - and, just as important, worked to undermine hard-line fidelistas like Alarcon. The Avila episode was yet another sign of how firmly Raul...