Word: bulling
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Investor Jim Rogers frequently says on television that we are in a long-term bull market in commodities and that this is the asset class that is really going to perform. Do you agree? I'm agnostic about it. I can see the validity of the argument, that it is different this time in commodities, but I don't have a strong conviction about...
...bottom in March, does that mean better times are ahead? Just because we made the bottom of a secular bear market doesn't mean we're in a new bull market. The history is that when you make the bottom of a secular bear market, in almost every situation, there has been a huge rally followed by a long period of churning back and forth in a big, broad trading range, anywhere from three to - in the case of Japan - 18 to 20 years. As for the rally, the usual rebound rally after one of these things is 71% over...
Sort of like the '60s and '70s, when the stock market really went nowhere. Is that what we might be headed for longer term? Yes, exactly. That bull market really peaked in 1965 or 1966 and then it churned back and forth - and inflation ravaged it, even though the nominal prices didn't collapse as much. But the Dow Jones average didn't set a new high until...
...China is the mother of all emerging markets. Do you see its stock market on a boom-bust trajectory, or is this the dawn of a major bull market, akin to 1982 in the U.S.? I would characterize it as being more similar to the U.S. in 1982. And China is still cheap. It isn't as cheap as it was four months ago, but that was the bottom of a long-term bear market, so I still think it looks really good...
Moving to Japan's stock market, which has been comatose for years, are conditions taking shape for its bull to reawaken? I think they are. Consumer confidence in July rose, exceeding expectations, and there's been a sharp acceleration in industrial production. Also, there is an election in another week, and it's pretty clear that the LDP [Japan's ruling party] is going to lose. The new party that's coming in intends to put through programs that will increase the amount of money that the average Japanese [person has], thereby stimulating personal spending. For example, it intends...