Word: bullish
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...Except, that is, in China. Some economists and investors have turned mildly bullish on the Chinese economy. A February survey conducted by Merrill Lynch saw the number of fund managers who believed China's growth would be lower in the next 12 months shrink drastically. Jing Ulrich, chairman of China securities at JPMorgan in Hong Kong, noted after client meetings that "attitudes toward China's efforts to counter the economic slump seem to have turned more positive." The happy mood also showed up in Chinese stocks. By mid-February, the Shanghai stock market had surged more than 30% since...
...preceding months. Most important, Chinese banks doled out nearly $240 billion of new loans in January - a one-month record. Some economists have taken these data as evidence that China's economy has already bottomed out. Merrill Lynch economists Ting Lu and T.J. Bond reaffirmed their bullish 8% GDP-growth estimate for 2009 in a February report, arguing that the turnaround could begin in the second quarter. "China looks set to be the first major economy to recover from the current global meltdown," they proclaimed...
...given all the worrisome economic news and negative market momentum, what would it take to turn a market bullish? Says Roth: "I'd become more bullish if I saw traders get very bearish and sell out, taking short interest much higher relative to volume." Beyond that sort of investor capitulation he'd also become more bullish, he says, if there were a big drop in long-term interest rates, especially in corporate bonds, which could prompt investors to shift their focus to stocks. At the moment, he says, it's a waiting game...
...from their 52-week high. Still, Rao says he currently has no intention of throttling back. Armed with cash from a $668 million rights offering in 2007 and $700 million in available credit, Rao feels he has the financial muscle to absorb the shock of the slowdown. He remains bullish on the prospects for Asia, and particularly for China, where Shangri-La already has 27 hotels including entries in up-and-coming cities like Wuhan and Dalian, where business has been holding up better than in major metropolitan areas like Beijing and Shanghai. "We do still see medium- to long...
...global economic crisis, however, has changed the political and economic landscape. Although inflation continues to be rampant, growth is now uncertain, given the sluggish demand in developed countries. With oil prices hitting unforeseen lows, he can afford neither the vast federal projects in Venezuela nor his bullish foreign policy favoritism...